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The Baton Rouge metro area could gain 7,900 jobs next year and 8,300 in 2026, according to the latest version of the Louisiana Economic Forecast led by economist Loren Scott. Those gains would equate to the fastest absolute growth rate among all the state’s MSAs.
Scott expects the state to add almost 58,300 jobs during that span, and if forecasts hit the mark, the state will exceed the 2 million annual employment level for the first time in history.
Scott writes that two major uncertainties cloud forecasters’ view of the future. The presidential election is the largest uncertainty, while the immediate future of the economy also looms—will we hit a recession or will the Fed successfully manage its “soft landing” against inflation?
After last year’s forecast predicted a recession for this year, the new forecast is more optimistic.
“These forecasters see no recession in the near term,” Scott writes. “Expectations are for a soft landing.”
Forecasters’ optimism regarding the Capital Region is based on some $18.2 billion in announced projects, which have a high probability of breaking ground over the next two years. The opening of the Amazon fulfillment center on the former Cortana site could add a total of 1,000 jobs, while the two riverboat casinos moving landside in downtown also appear to be growing the gaming market.
Industrial construction will be the most important driver of the economy, with $10.5 billion in projects under construction and another $18.1 billion waiting on final investment decisions.
Scott is the keynote speaker at today’s Louisiana Business Symposium, hosted by Business Report. We will have more from his presentation in Daily Report PM.
