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Four days before Election Day, the government will issue its final snapshot of hiring and unemployment in the U.S. after a presidential race in which voter perceptions of the economy have played a central role.
Yet Friday’s report will include some of the most distorted monthly employment figures in years, with job growth being held down temporarily in October by hurricanes and worker strikes.
Typically, the monthly jobs data helps clarify how the economy is faring. However, economists estimate that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, combined with the effects of the ongoing strike by Boeing machinists, will have reduced hiring last month by a significant number—roughly 60,000 to 100,000 jobs, most of them only temporarily.
All told, economists have estimated that Friday’s report will show that just 120,000 jobs were added in October, according to the data provider FactSet. That is a decent number, though less than half of September’s unexpectedly robust 254,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a low of 4.1%.
Once the impact of the hurricanes and strikes are considered, those figures would still point to a solid job market that has shown surprising durability buoyed by healthy consumer spending in the face of the Fed’s high interest rates.
Friday’s jobs report will be the last major snapshot of the economy before the Fed’s next meeting on Nov. 7, two days after the election. Most economists expect the Fed to reduce its benchmark rate by a quarter-point after an outsize half-point cut in September.
