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The latest installment of the Baton Rouge Area Foundation’s Opportunity Data Project explores the root causes of violent crime in Baton Rouge, a city that had more murders per capita than nearly every other medium- and large-sized city in the nation last year.
The report, released Wednesday afternoon, identifies a clear link between poverty, school disengagement and violent crime, as most individuals convicted of homicide in Baton Rouge over the course of the past 10 years were young men between the ages of 18 and 29 who grew up in high-poverty neighborhoods and dropped out of their local public school system.
“There is a clear pattern that sets people who engage in violent crime apart from other residents in the parish,” an excerpt from the report reads.
Using a 15-year dataset compiled with the help of the East Baton Rouge Parish School System and the East Baton Rouge District Attorney, researchers found that 80% of individuals convicted of homicide in Baton Rouge were raised in the city and attended local public schools. Of that group, 70% did not complete high school and 60% grew up in neighborhoods with high levels of poverty.
The report identifies five key “signals of disengagement” in school-age boys that increase the likelihood of them dropping out and, eventually, engaging in violent crime:
- Low readiness for kindergarten: When a student scores at the lowest level of preparedness for learning at the beginning of his first school year.
- Chronic absenteeism (grades 1-8): When a student misses 10% or more of the school days in a single school year.
- Behavioral incidents (grades 1-8): When a student has more than twice as many major behavioral incidents, such as fighting or skipping class, as his peers in the same grade.
- Inability to read at the basic level (grades 3-5): When a student fails to read at the minimum expected level for their grade.
- Inability to perform math at the basic level (grades 6-8): When a student fails to master grade level expectations in math.
While Baton Rouge’s murder rate is bucking national trends, the report is careful to note that the number of young men who are involved in violent crime is actually very small.
“Just a few hundred boys in each grade are signaling they are at-risk of disengaging from school, dropping out and becoming involved in violence,” the report reads. “Over 440,000 people live in East Baton Rouge Parish. It is completely possible for a community of this size to reach a few hundred boys in each elementary and middle school grade to provide them with the support that will enable them to succeed.”
According to the report, Baton Rouge spends far less on violence prevention programs than other cities where violent crime has declined in recent years. Researchers highlight Newark, New Jersey, where the murder rate has dropped by 50% over the course of the past decade partly due to the fact that the city is investing 10 times more per resident in community-based prevention programs than Baton Rouge is today.
The report also breaks down how the costs of prevention compare to the costs of violent crime. Researchers estimate that a single homicide costs Baton Rouge $3.5 million, while effective early intervention programs cost significantly less per participant:
- $350 for elementary school prevention programs
- $3,500 for middle school prevention programs
- $35,000 for young adult prevention programs for those already involved in violent crime
As far as solutions go, the report points to a few key areas that city leaders would do well to invest in, including high-quality early childhood education, chronic absenteeism prevention initiatives, cognitive behavioral therapy for at-risk youth and literacy and math tutoring programs.
“We can provide boys who signal they are disengaging from school with focused support to help them succeed academically and avoid becoming involved in violence,” the report reads.
The Opportunity Data Project is a collaboration between BRAF and Common Good Labs, a national research organization. The project has a stated goal of leveraging data science to identify specific areas in need of investment. Review past installments here.
