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An inflation gauge that is closely watched by the Federal Reserve barely rose last month in a sign that price pressures cooled after two months of sharp gains.
Friday’s report from the Commerce Department shows prices rose just 0.1% from October to November. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices also ticked up just 0.1%, after two months of outsize 0.3% gains.
The milder inflation figures arrive two days after Federal Reserve officials, led by Chair Jerome Powell, rocked financial markets by revealing that they now expect to cut their key interest rate just two times in 2025, down from four in their previous estimate. Stickier inflation, Powell says, “might be the single biggest factor” causing the central bank to reduce the number of rate cuts it envisions. Fewer Fed rate cuts would likely mean that mortgage rates and other consumer borrowing costs would remain elevated.
Friday’s data did contain one sign of still-persistent inflation: Year-over-year inflation edged up to 2.4% in November from 2.3% in October and above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. But year-over-year “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, were unchanged at 2.8%. The Fed pays closer attention to the core figures, which are regarded as a better sign of where inflation is likely headed.
