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Despite weak market fundamentals, crude oil prices could go into triple digits if supplies are disrupted by conflict in the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Citi Research said Monday in a report its base case is still for international benchmark Brent to average $74 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $65 a barrel in the first quarter of 2025, “owing to weak underlying oil market fundamentals.”
At the same time, analysts increased their bull-case estimate to $120 from $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year, while assigning such an outcome a probability of 20%, up from 10% previously.
“Our new bull case scenario is based on supply fears and disruptions similar in magnitude and duration to that which occurred during 2022,” Citi wrote, referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused a spike in oil prices.
