Should Gov. Jeff Landry and his allies succeed in producing an ambitious tax reform amendment next month, voter approval of the proposed constitutional changes would be required in a sleepy March election.
But how many voters would actually take the time to participate in an otherwise lackluster and mostly municipal election cycle? Which factors could influence turnout? And what comparable ballot initiatives from yesteryear are worth reviewing?
The administration’s current plan calls for holding a special session between Election Day and Thanksgiving. If all goes accordingly, legislators will approve at least 10 bills, including a massive constitutional amendment to reorganize Article VII, which is the Louisiana Constitution’s tax and finance section.
The amendment would then go to the voters in March, where it might be the only thing on the ballot for much of the state.
Pollster John Couvillon says he would expect turnout to be “pitiful, like 15 to 20 percent.” However, if there’s a major advertising blitz and public outreach effort around the amendment, both for and against, turnout might be pushed into the 30% range, he adds.
Couvillon notes that turnout was a bit higher than that in 1989 for Gov. Buddy Roemer’s failed tax plan, driven by the Republican’s “Louisiana is Worth It” campaign and the concerted effort to kill the ballot initiative.
By contrast, the November 2021 election that included significant tax amendments but much less publicity only drew about 14% turnout. That year, voters approved a measure to slash income tax rates while repealing the federal income tax break, but shot down an effort to centralize sales tax collections.
“It’s hard to imagine topping 20 percent, if that,” pollster Greg Rigamer said about the March election.
While the 70% or so turnout seen in presidential elections provides a pretty good cross section of the populace, smaller turnout elections tend to skew older and more conservative, Rigamer says.
If the ballot language currently being circulated ends up being the final version, here’s what voters will see:
“Do you support an amendment to reduce the personal income tax rate, prohibit sales tax on prescription drugs, to provide for certain property tax exemptions, to increase the amount of the standard deduction for taxpayers over the age of sixty-five, to make payments toward the state teachers’ retirement system, to provide for a teacher salary increase, and to make other changes to Article VII of the Constitution of Louisiana?”
It’s impossible to fully summarize what is currently a 128-page bill in the space allowed on a ballot. But you’ll notice the proposed language includes the goodies that most people will like, including an age-related item that appeals directly to older voters—with none of the revenue-raising measures that might give voters (and legislators) heartburn.
“Our intention is to have as much of the detail included in the amendment in the ballot language as possible, because I think most of the amendment changes would be things that people would support,” Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson says. “Most of the things can be accomplished statutorily, whether the constitutional amendment passes or not.”
Though some are likely to be consolidated, 10 draft bills currently are being circulated. That’s counting the constitutional amendment and three other bills that would be contingent upon the amendment’s passage, Nelson says.
“In my opinion, from my seat, if you vote against one of those components, then you’re voting against lowering the personal income tax and the corporate,” says Rep. Neil Riser, the former chair of the Senate Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Committee.
Each measure will be debated separately, though the administration is urging lawmakers to think of them as a single package. Revenue-raising measures have to start in the House; Nelson says finding authors remains a work in progress.
One proposal calls for imposing sales taxes on some 40 services that currently are untaxed. Asked how they decided which services to tax, Nelson says one factor was whether the transaction involves the sale of tangible property. Currently, for example, if you have your air conditioner repaired, the part that you need is taxed, but the act of repairing it is not
They also look to tax services that are more luxuries than necessities, like lawn mowing and dog grooming, and services taxed in other states. For example, Kentucky taxes lobbying.
“That is very popular with the public,” Nelson says. “It is very unpopular with lobbyists.”
Numerous policy concerns will be raised over the next few weeks. One overriding issue for critics, much like Landry’s failed constitutional convention push, is the speed at which the process is moving, especially with a fiscal-focused regular session set for next year.
“I just don’t think that there’s enough time for the legislative body to actually come up to speed and become informed on what the governor’s proposing to do,” Rep. Matthew Willard said during a webinar Invest in Louisiana hosted Wednesday. “This is not a tax reform package. This is a tax replacement package. Everything as it relates to taxes in the state of Louisiana will change if all of these laws are adopted.”
The deadline to get a proposition on the March 29 municipal primary ballot is Jan. 2. Candidate qualifying will be held Jan. 29 through Jan. 31.
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
