Handicapping local political races

Handicapping local political races

Monday, September 10, 2007

They’re off!

The field is set, and the race is on. And there are a lot of horses on the track. Some young thoroughbreds. Some old nags that should be put out to pasture. A few jackasses. And a few I would like to send to the glue factory. Several big names never left the stall despite all the speculation.

Just for fun, if I was a handicapper, here’s how I would rate some of the local races.

Senate District 14: Cleo Fields has drawn five opponents. That’s after two dropped out. As I said two weeks ago (“Publisher’s View,” Aug. 28), I believe that with a court challenge Fields would be ruled term-limited and ousted from the race. Jason DeCuir is looking strong and Yvonne Dorsey has her base. There are three others—Willis Reed, Steven Schilling and Scott Lemoine—who are long shots. But if Fields does manage to stay in the race, I predict it is headed to a runoff … and that is never a good sign for an incumbent.

Other Senate seats: Incumbents Sharon Weston Broome, Bill Cassidy, Butch Gautreaux and Rob Marionneaux will be odds-on favorites—though keep your eye on Martha Manuel as a dark horse challenging Marionneaux. I hear she has spirit.

A couple folks won without leaving the gate. Jody Amedee from Gonzales was re-elected to District 18 without opposition. And Rep. Dale Erdey took the seat in Senate District 13, replacing Clo Fontenot (who chose not to run), when no one else qualified.

Chas Roemer, son of former governor Buddy Roemer, made his first entry into politics and was elected with no opposition. Look for him to make his mark at BESE and push big changes in education.

On the House side, several horses walked to the winner’s circle without a race, including: Don Cazayoux Jr., District 18; Eddie Lambert, District 59; Karen St. Germain, District 60; Avon Honey, District 63; Hunter Greene, District 66; and Mert Smiley Jr., District 88. (Didn’t anyone in District 66 pay attention to Greene’s opposition to ethics reform in the last session? The constituents here were asleep at the wheel in failing to make him run and answer for his actions. Disappointing.)

But there are some real races in other districts, and a few could be photo finishes.

District 61: Incumbent Michael Jackson and Councilman Byron Sharper line up. Both had been candidates for Fields’ Senate seat until they realized he was running for re-election. Sharper has run for Senate before and finished third. Now he will try for the House, but will have to carry the baggage of being responsible for Darrell Glasper sitting on the BREC board. In addition, Jackson has done a good job and helped push ethics reform this year. The odds are in Jackson’s favor.

District 64: Incumbent Bodi White stirred up political activist and businessman Lane Grigsby with a “plumber’s vote,” and Grigsby put out a “wanted poster” for candidates to challenge White. Now White has three opponents and a race on his hands—especially if Grigsby gets involved with his BR Next organization and runs ads against him.

District 67: This one could get exciting. Rep. Yvonne Dorsey is term-limited here, and the open seat has drawn Councilwoman Lorri Burgess, who is term-limited next year, and school board president Pat Smith, who ran last time against Fields for Senate and lost. These two seasoned politicians are being challenged by newcomer David Brown. After years of putting up with the politics of Burgess and Smith, it could be the voters are ready to put them out to pasture and ride a new, younger horse. (Some of the stuff I have seen Burgess and Smith pull makes each look more like a Democratic donkey than a racehorse.)

District 68: Here’s another hot race that could come down to the wire. Kyle Ardoin, Steve Carter and Jay Lyles. All first-time candidates running hard. Ardoin and Carter are neck and neck out front based on signs and money. Lyles will have to use the whip to catch them-or slow them down. No one gets 51%.

District 69: Another big field of all first-timer Republicans. Bill Benedetto, Erich Ponti, Bob Thibodeaux and Brian McNabb. Some old heads and young ones. Benedetto has the contacts to raise the most money but is certain to get tagged with the “status quo” label. And as former spokesperson for Entergy, he could be the target of animosity aimed at the company. Who will have the stamina to run hard and fast to the wire and make a certain runoff?

District 70: Rep. Carl Crane is term-limited, and his seat has attracted new faces and a term-limited councilman. Franklin Foil, son of former judge Frank Foil, got off to an early start. He has been joined by Aidan Reynolds and Metro Councilman Pat Culbertson, who made a short appearance as candidate for mayor in 2000 but dropped out. Since he is term-limited next year, he wants to move to the Capitol. He has a base, but also the stigma of a weak Metro Council. Foil and Reynolds are proposing a fresh alternative. Reynolds is the long shot but could force a runoff. This will be a real horse race.

District 71: Here’s a battle to fill the open seat left by Erdey, who moved to the Senate. There’s a big field of late entries who must sprint to the finish: Derral Jones, John Ware, Brian Abels, Rogers Pope and Al Comeaux. Up for grabs and ends in a runoff. But with who?

East Baton Rouge Parish Sheriff: It’s going to get nasty down the stretch—count on it. The horses are Sid Gautreaux, Dalton Honore, Mark Milligan, Greg Phares (acting sheriff) and Scott Thompson. The front-runners are Phares and Gautreaux. Others are long shots. I’m not even sure what Milligan’s agenda is. He has come out attacking Phares (including at the League of Women Voters luncheon), which seems to stem from issues he had when he was a policeman and Phares was chief. He has hurt his chances to be taken as a serious candidate and appears to have a vendetta—or maybe is there as a “hatchet man” and will look for a job later. This one could be a photo finish in the primary for first and second, and I predict a runoff that could get even nastier.

BESE Board, District 8: Linda Johnson takes on Darrell Glasper (who has gone from Democrat to Republican and is now running as “other”) and Paul Miller. Lord save us if Glasper gets put in charge of the state’s K-12 education.

Funding startups

Capital is key to any business startup but for technology firms and growth-oriented companies trying to reach the next level, it takes lots of capital and that usually means venture capital. In years past, it was hard to find in Louisiana, but today there are venture firms with about $100 million under management. It’s progress.

Each year, those firms and others from across the South get together for the Louisiana Purchase Venture Capital Forum. The event, scheduled for Oct. 23-24 this year, gives Louisiana entrepreneurs the opportunity to attract investment capital and provides information for companies preparing for growth.

If you want information on presenting or attending, visit the Web site at la-purchase.com or call 381-7125.


Comments

Post a comment

(Requires free registration.)

Username:
Password: (Forgotten your password?)

Comment:

Story Extras

Poll

When will LSU lose its first football game this season?

See Results | Archives



Click Here for Great Deals